Pages

Sunday 21 August 2016

How will GB do in Tokyo?


The performance of the GB team in Rio has been exceptional but not hugely surprising. I had projected they would be third in the medal table with 22 gold medals and 56 medals overall with good chances in over 100 events. For those of us who obsessively follow Olympic sports between games it was clear that GB would be extremely competitive in a wide range of events.

2nd place in the medal table was a bonus caused largely by China's decline since topping the table in Beijing - they've finished nine golds and around 15 medals below projections. And, over the longer term, the collapse of sports administration (and state doping programmes) in former USSR and Warsaw Pact countries.

The decline of China is something of a warning to GB. Both China and Australia followed up home games with strong performances in the following Olympics - though GB is the first to get a higher medal total - but both then declined as politicians lost interest and funding reduced.

So can GB buck the trend and continue to improve at Tokyo? A quick overview of the key sports suggests it's possible:

The athletics team will see the greatest transition as it's unlikely that Mo Farah, Jess Ennis, Greg Rutherford and Christine Ohuruogu will appear in Tokyo. As they're responsible for nine out of GB's thirteen athletics medals in London and Rio their retirements will leave a big hole to fill. There have, though, been enough strong performances from young athletes to make it possible. On the men's side Adam Gemili (22) missed out on a 200m medal by thousands of a second. And Matt Hudson-Smith (21) made one of the most competitive 400m finals in history. Andrew Butchart (24) came fourth in the 5k behind Mo Farah becoming the third fastest Brit in history after Mo and David Moorcroft.

On the women's side Dina Asher-Smith (21) came fifth in the 200m and her PB would have won a bronze. She also won a 4x100 bronze alongside two excellent 100m prospects - Desiree Henry (20) and Daryl Neita (19). Cindy Ofili (22) has had a breakthrough season this year and missed out on a 100m hurdles bronze by 0.02 hundredths of a second. Sophie Hitchon (25) won a hammer bronze with the two in front of her too old to make the next Olympics. Katarina Johnson-Thompson (23) clearly has the talent to get a heptathlon gold in Tokyo if she can conquer her nerves and look out for Morgan Lake (19) who reached the high jump final in Rio.

The track cycling team should be more or less the same in Toyko as in Rio bar Bradley Wiggins and Mark Cavendish. And there are a whole load of young cyclists behind them waiting to step up in the case of injuries and early retirements. Look out for Lewis Oliva (24) in the men's sprint; Jon Dibben (22) and Mark Stewart (21) in the pursuit/omnium  and on the women's side Emily Nelson (20) and Emily Kay (21). Whether GB is as dominant in Tokyo as in Rio/London/Beijing will depend on the rest of the world's ability to catch up.

The swimming team probably has the greatest potential for improvement. There are 34 golds available in swimming - 2nd only to athletics - and GB have only won three this century (Becky Addlington x2 and now Adam Peaty). GB's performance in Rio was much better that London - increasing from 3 to 6 medals and another 7 fourth places - nearly all achieved by young swimmers who should be in Tokyo. Peaty is just 21 and I'd love to see him try and develop his 200m breaststroke to give him the chance of two golds in 2020. Siobhan Marie O'Connor (20) came agonisingly close to gold in the 200m individual medley and has the potential to be challenging for 3 or 4 golds in four years time.

James Guy (20) came fourth in the 200m freestyle after winning the world championships last year and could be in the mix for 2 or 3 golds in four years time. Max Litchfield (21) came fourth in the 400 individual medley and has improved his PB a lot this year. As did Ben Proud (21) in the 50m freestyle. Duncan Scott (19) smashed the British record in the 100m freestyle and came fifth in the final. And Chloe Tutton (20) came fourth in the 200m breaststroke having broken the British Record earlier in the year (she'd have won a medal if the Russian Efimova's ban had been upheld days before the games). And look out for a few excellent prospects who were a bit young for Rio - Emily Large (just 15) in butterfly and Tazmin Pugh (16) in butterfly and backstroke.

Collectively this is the most talented group of young swimmers outside of the US and they should peak in Tokyo - potentially winning five or six golds.

The gymnastics squad probably had the most impressive Olympics of any GB team in Rio with almost as many medals as GB has won in all previous games. On the men's side the core of the team Max Whitlock (23), Nile Wilson (20) and Brinn Bevan (19) will be peaking in Tokyo. If they can find one more world class gymnast by then they could challenge for the all-around title (look out for Jay Thompson - 20 - to come through into the senior ranks). On the women's side it doesn't seem the US dominance will be challenged anytime soon but Amy Tinkler (16) - who won floor bronze in Rio - is a huge prospect. Look out as well for junior champions Catherine Lyons (15) and Tyesha Mattis (17) to turn the team into a real all-around medal contender.

The rowing team were one of the few in Rio to miss their medal target even though they topped the medal table for the regatta - so certainly room for improvement. Most of the rowers in the winning men's four and men's eight crews are young enough to keep going and should be able to maintain dominance. Helen Glover (32) and Heather Stanning (33) could just about make Tokyo if they want to mount another defence of their title. The main areas for improvement are on the lightweight side where GB won no medals this time having won three in London and sculling where Katherine Grainger and Vicky Thornley were our only medalists.

Elsewhere most of our Rio champions should be back to defend their titles. Nick Skelton has said he'll retire at 58; Charlotte Dujardin is certainly young enough to compete again but her horse Valegro isn't; Liam Heath is 32 so probably won't make another games; Nicola Adams will be 38 in Tokyo but hasn't ruled out staying on. Everyone else is definitely young enough to come back. Joe Clarke in kayak slalom is just 23. Double diving medalist Jack Laugher is 21 and synchro partner Chris Mears is 23. Giles Scott and Hannah Mills (though not her partner Saskia Clark) will back in the sailing. And Jade Jones (23) / Alistair Brownlee (28) will be able to defend their titles for a third time.

The overall impression is that, as long as national lottery investment continues as roughly the same levels, GB should be able to perform at least as well if not better in Tokyo. If they can maintain dominance in track cycling and push on to five or six swimming golds then a target of 30+ golds and 75 medals should be achievable.












32 comments:

  1. Sam, thank you for all your Olympic tweets. At times it reminded me of what someone once said to John Peel. He listened to the show because he would hear the Liverpool score. When I really needed to know what was happening at Rio I went to your twitter account as the fastest results service. While I've enjoyed Britain being kind of good at a load of sports I'd be okay if we sunk back a bit. The Olympics is beautiful festival that nearly always lifts my spirits (wasn't too keen on Atlanta).So they'll always be fun and I wouldn't want us Brits to get too hung up on performance if things don't pan out in Tokyo. Rio was great because of Max Whitlock. It was also great because of Simone Biles as well. As long as we remember that we'll still have fun. Four years from now. Same time, same place?

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Sam,

    I was wondering about your phrase "If at first you don't succeed, try two more times so that your failure is statistically significant". In which cases one of three results would be statistically significant and why?

    Best,

    Christian

    ReplyDelete
  5. Take a closer look at this articles https://nerdymates.com/blog/rhetorical-essay with numerous tips on writing rhetorical essay.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The country's games fans, who have remained up in their millions to watch any semblance of Mo Farah, Andy Murray and Adam Peaty winning gold in the early hours, will now be ravenous for more achievement.Dissertation Proposal Writing Service

    ReplyDelete
  7. The examination philosophy part comes after writing survey and it must be legitimately. Here you have to gives subtle elements of the examination techniques that are utilized in addition to wellsprings of data accumulation must be recorded. Buy Dissertation Online

    ReplyDelete
  8. The athletics team can see the best transition as it's unlikely that Mo Farah, Jess Ennis, Greg Rutherford and Christine Ohuruogu can seem in Edo. As they are chargeable for 9 out of GB's 13 athletics medals in London and metropolis their retirements can leave an enormous hole to fill help for assignment.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If they'll notice an extra world category athlete by then they may challenge for the comprehensive title (look out for Jay Thompson - twenty - to come back through into the senior ranks assignment writing help.

    ReplyDelete
  10. https://tnhboxes.com/
    https://www.paperslibrary.com/
    https://topacademictutors.com/
    https://liveassignmenthelp.com/
    http://rankhawks.com/
    http://www.quotehawks.com/
    https://cosmocarparts.com/
    http://aiwah.pk/

    ReplyDelete
  11. I did enjoyed reading this content; I am bookmarking your blog and definitely will come back again best dissertation writing services in UK.

    ReplyDelete
  12. i really impress your work. Thanks a ton for sharing this information in this article.
    Custom Boxes

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dedicatedhosting4u.com offers decent and persistent dedicated servers with fastest communication over the internet. The customers are provided with two choices, one is self-Managed and the other one is Managed hosting.
    https://www.dedicatedhosting4u.com/

    ReplyDelete
  14. It is time to forget about your tensions and get timely term paper help from our renowned term paper service. The most exciting aspects of our cooperation is that you get the best place where to buy term papers and save your time. https://superbessay.com/buy-movie-review-essay/

    ReplyDelete
  15. Nice Blog!
    Facing error while using QuickBooks get instant solution with our QuickBooks experts.Dial +1-855-533-6333 QuickBooks Payroll Support Phone Number.

    ReplyDelete
  16. It is known in the whole world that it has not been easy to buy psychedelic online overnight.
    buy magic mushrooms gives you the opportunity to buy psychedelic drugs online.
    You can buy psychedelic drugs online like LSD, DMT, Magic mushroom, psilocybin-mushrooms, psilocybe and shrooms etc.
    Buy LSD online from us and stand a chance of 100% guaranteed delivery fast delivery to all destinations worldwide.
    https://vapepodshop.com

    juul compatible pods
    refillable juul pods
    buy lsd online
    banana kush
    buy weed online
    oxycodone 30mg
    buy dmt online
    where to buy dmt

    juul pods online

    ReplyDelete
  17. Aquiring the services of Supply Chain Assignment Help from Professional Assignment Writers Online provide you with free time to concentrate on other task. The company also offers any type of PowerPoint Writing Services Online that are custom made.

    ReplyDelete
  18. DMT can produce vivid “projections” of mystical experiences involving euphoria and dynamic hallucinations of geometric forms. Buy dmt online USA Trippytoday.Com.

    visit here : Where to Buy Dmt Online

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hey everyone.
    We are giving you the big best offer to buy logo design for your business with 80% off I expect You will be happy with us.Logo Designers

    ReplyDelete
  20. I really don't have the interest to read articles or blogs but sometimes you need to do what you really think is useless but believe I am trying to find this kind of article since morning and now I found it...
    if you are really interested in web designing or logo designing then visit us we surely can help you?
    Logo Designers

    ReplyDelete
  21. Buy mescaline Cacti Online
    We offer Mescaline Cacti in two types. These are the San Pedro cactus and the Peyote cactus. Maybe you would prefer to grow them all by yourself? You can do that too. Then buy our San Pedro cactus seeds or Peyote cactus seeds. Both the mescaline cactus and the seeds can be ordered online in our webshop. order from Buy mescaline Cacti Online

    ReplyDelete

  22. Buy LSD online
    1p-LSD, short for 1 Propionyl Lysergic Acid Diethylamide is the hallucinogenic, psychedelic drug that belongs to the family of lysergamide. This substance has almost no history of human use. This substance has never been reported in any formal scientific literature making it unknown to the public and the academics. to buy LSD online order at Buy LSD online

    ReplyDelete
  23. Buy Crystal Mеth Online
    Buy Meth Online. Crystal mеth iѕ the common name fоr сrуѕtаl methamphetamine, a ѕtrоng аnd highly addictive drug that affects the central nеrvоuѕ ѕуѕtеm.buy crystal meth online

    ReplyDelete
  24. amazing website, this is really some good quality content. loved the way you explained through words keep writing the best article
    Rocky Tiger Jacket

    ReplyDelete